The end of the year is fast approaching, with most capitals experiencing a strong recovery on dwelling values from the downturn that culminated at the start of 2023.

The recovery is mainly due to an influx of immigration and constricted supply, which the Government is trying to remedy with its ambitious goal of building 1.2 million homes by 2029 through HAFF.

However, according to an ABC report, the industry is only able to deliver about 175K properties per year at current capacity; although, Prefabricated Building Industry claims these figures can be boosted with modular construction.

The $10bn Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) has finally passed the Senate after the Labor Government struck a deal with the Greens to add another $1bn for public and community housing. The HAFF plans to build 30,000 social and affordable homes in the next five years; though, national spokesperson for Everybody’s Home, Maiy Azize says it won’t solve the existing “shortfall of 640,000 homes”.

CoreLogic’s Mapping the Market tool shows rent values rose in over 90% of Australian markets over the last 12 months, with Adelaide and Perth’s suburbs topping the list. In response, the National Cabinet has introduced new measures to counter the rising housing crisis, including a New Home Bonus, a Housing Support Program and a National Planning Reform Blueprint.

Realestate.com.au Sarah Dowling says economists predict interest rates will fall under the leadership of the new RBA governor Michelle Bullock when she takes over from Mr Lowe in September.

Property prices are on the rise despite the avalanche of rate hikes since May 2023. According to CoreLogic’s data, all major capitals have recorded a month-on-month increase in total dwelling values, with Sydney leading the way at 1.8%.

The 2023 Federal Budget released this month aims to address some of the property market’s greatest challenges. Among its measures is a new tax break for the build-to-rent sector, increased rent assistance and an additional $2 billion to support affordable housing.

In a bid to further help first home buyers, the expansion of Australia’s First Home Guarantee and Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee allows siblings, extended family and friends to submit joint applications from 1 July this year.

After a recent review, the RBA is set to undergo the biggest reform in decades, effective 1 July 2024, with the current board losing its powers to set the cash rate. According to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the most significant change involves the creation of two boards, one for governance and one for monetary policy, with the latter having dual objectives: monetary stability and employment.

CoreLogic’s latest figures are showing strong signs of an ending downturn, with some of the most-affected markets, such as Sydney, already starting to recover.

Meanwhile, Australian borrowers have received some respite this month, with the RBA deciding to pause rate hikes for April after 10 consecutive rises. The successive rate rises had garnered negative reactions from the market and industry experts, however it remains to be seen whether this will be the last of the increases, or simply a pause for the time being.

The latest PropTrack data this month shows the market downturn is losing momentum, with the overall national home prices rising by 0.18% in February caused by tight supply and continued buyer demand.

After the RBA’s most aggressive tightening cycle in over 30 years, top experts surveyed by The Australian Financial Review predict only two further rate hikes in 2023 as the RBA pauses to evaluate the effects of the fixed-rate mortgage cliff.

According to CoreLogic’s records dating back to 1980, Australia has experienced the worst property downturn in history, with the average dwelling price dropping by 8.4% between April 2022 and Jan 2023.

This month Super funds announced plans to invest $41 billion in properties over the next 10 years in line with the government’s housing accord. According to the Industry Super Australia report though, one of their biggest roadblocks will be insufficient large-scale developments to invest in.

The RBA increased the cash rate by a further 25 basis points this month, bringing it up to 2.85%. Current rates are still considered modest by economists in light of the highest inflation on record in three decades.

The new Federal government has delivered its first budget this month with a plan to build 1 million new homes over the next 5-years. The plan provides for 30,000 social and affordable rental homes.

Australia’s house prices continue to fall, driven by reduced lending capacity and rising interest rates, which currently linger between 4% and 5%. According to Capital Economics Marcel Thieliant, this trend is set to continue as central bank looks to cool inflation.

This month the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by another 25 basis points to bring the cash rate to 2.6%, contributing to a further drop in confidence amongst buyers.

This months interest rate rise of 0.5 per cent marked the RBA’s fifth consecutive rate rise, taking the cash rate to 2.35 per cent for September.

This takes the cash rate to its highest level since December 2014 and prompts questions of how long rate rises will continue. To date, this is the fastest interest rates have risen in 28 years as the RBA tries to curb inflation.

The RBA increased interest rates again this week as inflation rose to 6.1 per cent; the fastest pace in more than two decades. Meanwhile, Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has warned us to ‘brace for pain to escape recession’ later this year.

June saw a weakening of the housing market, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, which are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. But even in Adelaide, one of the more buoyant markets of late, the pace of growth is slowing. Homeowners wanting to sell now fear they’ve ‘missed the boat’, while prospective buyers play the waiting game as housing affordability and rising interest rates become the primary concern.

As we enter the last month of the financial year, there’s been a focus on the state of the property market. The Federal Election is over; there’s a new government in town, so what’s next for the housing market? Are we still in a boom or bust, or has the market finally returned to ‘normal’?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced the quarterly Consumer Price Index, aka inflation, has jumped to 5.1 per cent this quarter. Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics, said this was “the largest quarterly increase since the introduction of the goods and services tax in 2000”.
On May 3rd, the RBA lifted the official cash rate to 0.35%, the first rate rise in more than a decade, with more rises expected in the coming months.

The question on everyone’s lips this month; is the Aussie real estate boom over? Some experts certainly think the pandemic-induced boom is done. Market conditions have changed recently, with falling auction clearance rates and vendors taking prior offers that were ‘less attractive’ a few weeks ago. Economists predict value declines into Easter, with interest rates hikes still on the agenda for the second half of 2022.

As we head into March, the looming Federal election, increased property listings, and the rumble of an imminent interest rate rise has seen the heat come out of the market in most capital cities.

Vendors keen to take advantage of the pricing boom have come out in force to list their properties, while prospective buyers, feeling uncertain about what may be around the corner, are thinking twice before taking the plunge.

Speculation is mounting that the RBA will raise interest rates ahead of schedule, banks have tightened lending criteria, affordability constraints exist for many, and a Federal election is on the horizon. In addition, an increase in new housing supply and speculation that property listings will increase at some point in 2022 has economists pointing to a significant cooling of the red-hot housing market this year.

As we head into December and the final property report for 2021, economists, real estate market analysts and the big banks are each forecasting how the property market will perform during 2022 and 2023.

With the pandemic boom coming to an end and increasing stock levels across all capital cities, the consensus is that the double-digit price increases seen over the last thirteen months won’t be repeated. Instead, expect a 5 to 6 per cent increase in 2022 and a price fall of 4 per cent in 2023.

According to CoreLogic, new listings continue to rise across all capital cities, surging 28.2 per cent in the four weeks to mid-October. While this could signal relief for potential buyers, the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, has given the strongest indication yet that a crackdown on home lending is in the works.

As we enter October, new listings have increased across all capital cities over recent weeks as anticipated. CoreLogic reports that we’re experiencing the highest level of housing turnover for twelve years. Almost 598,000 house and unit sales were recorded for the year ending August 2021. This is the highest number of sales since 2004 and a 42 per cent lift on the annual number of sales over the same period in 2020.

As we enter September 2021, a large portion of the country remains in lockdown. Demand remains high, but stock volumes are low. Data from Core Logic shows increasing median prices in most capital cities, quick sales and continuing real estate records, and as lockdowns lift, a robust recovery should follow.

Auctions go digital during lockdown, and house prices in suburbs across all capital cities soar as we enter August.

It seems that not even the economic uncertainty of continued lockdown events has dampened the countries appetite for real estate. In a survey conducted by Finder.com, close to one in seven Australians are reported to be considering a property purchase within the next six months. Approximately 7 per cent of those were looking to buy property as an investment.

House sellers continue to benefit as the property buying frenzy persists across the country. Meanwhile, leading economists have predicted that interest rates could start to increase as early as November 2022, well ahead of the RBA’s 2024 timeline.

Photo: Copyright © Vincent Quach. Some rights reserved.

Strong conditions in the Australian housing market continue, and June is expected to be another real estate ‘Groundhog Day’. While more sellers have been lifting asking prices midway through campaigns compared to previous years, Domain’s Dr Nicola Powell says that this trend is easing and “proves that the strong pace of price growth recorded this year is unlikely to continue at such a rapid rate”.

As we enter May, the housing market in every state capital continues to surge. A combination of increased consumer confidence, record low-interest rates, low stock rates and the all-consuming fear of missing out has sent buyers into a frenzy. Buyers want to stake their claim in a market that to date has shown no signs of slowing.

As we enter March, the supercharged real estate market sees prices continuing to surge in regional centres and major cities. Record low volumes in all major centres, low-interest rates and wages growth, falling unemployment and growing confidence have led to the perfect real-estate storm.