Our commentary on issues important to home owners, investors and borrowers
Property prices increased by 25.3% in Sydney in 2021 alone (CoreLogic). Taking a look the current slowdown, we've seen a decline of approximately -3.1% in Sydney over a 5 month period in 2022 (Feb-June 30). When we consider this perspective, property prices would have such a long way to fall before even getting near the property prices we saw in Sydney just last year.
Read MoreEconomists predict that the property market will continue to soften. AMP Capital’s chief economist says that Australia should expect a 10 to 15 per cent drop in house prices in some areas over the next 18 months. However, despite a weakening market, agents report that auction clearance rates remain steady, there’s adequate stock available, and for the most part, a buyer for every seller. With predictions that interest rates will increase monthly until the end of 2022, sellers may soon need to adjust their expectations.
Read MoreThe Australian Bureau of Statistics announced the quarterly Consumer Price Index, aka inflation, has jumped to 5.1 per cent this quarter. Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics, said this was “the largest quarterly increase since the introduction of the goods and services tax in 2000”.
On May 3rd, the RBA lifted the official cash rate to 0.35%, the first rate rise in more than a decade, with more rises expected in the coming months.
Read MoreThe PIPA (Property Investment Professionals of Australia) Annual Investor Sentiment Survey 2021 has shed light on what investors are thinking in response to the current property market conditions.
The steady decline in housing affordability, with the annual growth rate in housing values reaching 20.3%, has made its impact. Compared to 41 per cent from last year, 71 per cent of investors now believe prices in their state or territory will increase over the next year.
The pandemic has made remote working more commonplace and investors are looking at relocating due to housing affordability and improved lifestyle factors — such as less crowded cities and less active cases —that may be gained from living in more regional areas.
Investors are also favouring regional and coastal areas for investment purposes, with Queensland becoming the leading location for offering the most potential. 58% of investors believe so, and this is up from last year’s 36 per cent.
Compared to last year’s PIPA survey, it seems the positive sentiment gained from booming property prices has now been mitigated by increasing housing unaffordability and the recent rise in COVID cases, which has impacted investors’ willingness to enter the market.
Read MoreWith demand greatly outweighing supply, houses are selling well over reserve at auction and recent COVID-19 restrictions have affected property sellers’ willingness to go to market.
While this property boom strengthens some sectors of the economy, there are numerous economic implications. With houses skyrocketing in price, Australians yet to enter the market are seeing their chances of buying a property grow slimmer.
However, there is still high activity in the market for those with the capital to spare. But with higher prices comes higher property loans, as Australians are borrowing more in order to secure a property. Around 22% of all borrowers are now taking out loans that are six times larger than their annual income.
Read MoreRepublished from MPA.
The nation’s lockdowns are taking their toll on new home lending and the financial comfort of Australians. While the RBA remains positive, there are still concerns about the economic recovery.
The value of new home lending in Australia dropped for the first time this year in June, coinciding with the start of Sydney’s lockdown. Declining 1.6% over the month, it was driven by a 2.5% drop in owner-occupier lending – the largest fall since May 2020.
Investment lending bucked the trend, with the value of new loans to investors growing for the eighth consecutive month, rising by 0.7% in June to reach $9.19bn.
First home buyer purchases and loans for construction slowed over the month as incentives were wound back.
Read MoreLoanscape is your information resource about lending and property.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q3/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families have started to recover after the sharp decline over the past 2 years. Lower income borrowers continue to be disproportionately impacted by interest rate increases: the family income required to qualify for the average size loan in Australia is 37% higher than 2 years ago.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q2/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families have stabilised after the sharp decline over the past 2 years. Lower income borrowers continue to be disproportionately impacted by interest rate increases: the family income required to qualify for the average size loan in Australia is 35% higher than 2 years ago.
Combined dwelling values have re-accelerated across the nation in February, with all mainland capitals soaring in value. It probably comes as no surprise that Perth claimed the top spot by gaining a whopping 1.8% for the month
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q1/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families continue to decline. The more modest decline in the size of average loans being taken confirms that lower income borrowers are being disproportionately impacted by interest rate hikes: the family income required to qualify for the average loan in Australia is now 32% higher than 18 months ago.
The end of the year is fast approaching, with most capitals experiencing a strong recovery on dwelling values from the downturn that culminated at the start of 2023.
The recovery is mainly due to an influx of immigration and constricted supply, which the Government is trying to remedy with its ambitious goal of building 1.2 million homes by 2029 through HAFF.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q4/2024. It confirms the forecast trend that borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families are recovering from their low levels which coincided with the last of the recent increases to borrowing rates initiated by the Reserve Bank of Australia.