Our commentary on issues important to home owners, investors and borrowers
In most places, today, more money is lent to investors than first home owners. Western Australia and Northern Territory are the two current exceptions. When I started in this business it was rare than investment loan totals exceeded that lent to first home buyers. Something is wrong here if you ask me.
Read MoreHousing costs are a big problem for young people. Home ownership is falling fast in Australia, especially among the young and poor. Fewer than half of 25-34 year olds own their home today. Home ownership among the poorest 20% of that age group has fallen from 63% in 1981 to 23% today. At this rate almost half of retirees will be renters in 40 years time.
Read MoreThe Australian property market peaked in mid 2017. Since then prices have fallen by 6% on average nationally. Prices are down 13% in Sydney and 10% in Melbourne. These falls are the largest since the 1980s, albeit off the back of a large growth spurt which commenced in 2013. Overall, Justin Fabo of Macquarie expects the overall drop may be around 20% in Sydney but that it is very difficult to predict its timing. He says that it is too early to say whether recent improvements in auction clearance rates point to a bottoming in the market.
He says that although the level of housing approvals has dropped dramatically it will be 3 to 4 years before net migration turns the demand/supply balance to lead to a strong recovery in prices.
Read MoreAs property prices in Sydney have soared so have the revenues flowing to the State government as it rakes in record levels of tax revenue through the stamp duty on property transfers. This stamp duty, approximately 4% of each property transfer, is a significant impost which increases the savings threshold for first home buyers and acts as a brake on mobility in the property market.
Read MoreHistorically Australian government strategy, implemented via the FIRB, has been to funnel foreign investment in real estate into creating more housing stock. According to the report, that was the case this financial year with 85% of approvals being for new dwellings or vacant land for development. But we also know that there have been problems with compliance with this law due to poor oversight - many overseas buyers were simply ignoring the guidelines and buying local real estate anyway.
Read More45% of the new full-time jobs on the Sunshine Coast over the last five years have been in construction. Across all employment types, the Sunshine Coast saw full-time jobs losses last year of 210 and a 1,155 fall in construction positions. The Sunshine Coast is creating jobs but not necessarily full-time ones. This will have an impact on what type of housing is needed and where it is located.
Read MoreLoanscape is your information resource about lending and property.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q3/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families have started to recover after the sharp decline over the past 2 years. Lower income borrowers continue to be disproportionately impacted by interest rate increases: the family income required to qualify for the average size loan in Australia is 37% higher than 2 years ago.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q2/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families have stabilised after the sharp decline over the past 2 years. Lower income borrowers continue to be disproportionately impacted by interest rate increases: the family income required to qualify for the average size loan in Australia is 35% higher than 2 years ago.
Combined dwelling values have re-accelerated across the nation in February, with all mainland capitals soaring in value. It probably comes as no surprise that Perth claimed the top spot by gaining a whopping 1.8% for the month
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q1/2024. It shows that the borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families continue to decline. The more modest decline in the size of average loans being taken confirms that lower income borrowers are being disproportionately impacted by interest rate hikes: the family income required to qualify for the average loan in Australia is now 32% higher than 18 months ago.
The end of the year is fast approaching, with most capitals experiencing a strong recovery on dwelling values from the downturn that culminated at the start of 2023.
The recovery is mainly due to an influx of immigration and constricted supply, which the Government is trying to remedy with its ambitious goal of building 1.2 million homes by 2029 through HAFF.
Loanscape has today released its Borrowing Capacity Index for Q4/2024. It confirms the forecast trend that borrowing capacities of Australian individuals and families are recovering from their low levels which coincided with the last of the recent increases to borrowing rates initiated by the Reserve Bank of Australia.